Tigers Notes: How to win the divison in 2012

The Tigers can still win the AL Central in 2012 and defend their crown form 2011, though it isn’t as easy this year.  The Tigers have to take it one game at a time.  That situation is very true for this situation.  Their pitching is fine with Fister, Scherzer, and Verlander all being aces in the staff this year.  The offense just needs to score runs, and even if they are just enough they need to spread their runs out and score enough to win games.  If they improve in one run games that makes this team even stronger.  The offense will perk up to Miguel Cabrera, prince Fielder and Delmon Young will be great in the middle, the end guys just have to get a few RBIs each game and improve, which may be the hardest thing out of this teams needs list.  The Tigers should be fine they need to take at least 2 from the White Sox though and then only lose 3-4 against the teams they should beat and the A’s.  If the Tigers make the playoffs anything can happen, and the Tigers are a strong playoff team with talent and experience along with an overall ability to get hot and win.  Things are only looking u from here for the Tigers.  Another thing is to utilize the players on the bench the right way and pinch run Berry, bring in Santiago at short after the seventh or eighth to play defense sometimes, and using Garcia in the line-up and bigger situations.

Big Series For Tigers-White Sox In Chicago

Tonight is the start of a 4 game series in Chicago with the White Sox leading the Tigers by two games.  Last time these two teams met was from August 31 to September 2nd at Comerica Park where the Tigers, who have dominated the Sox in 2012 swept them, but this series is in Chicago with the stakes high, so anything could happen at this point
WHITE SOX: The Sox have a good line-up, but their task is to be able to hit the Tigers studs, the Tigers are sending Rick Porcello, Max Scherzer, Doug Fister, and Justin Verlander to the mound in this series and the White Sox have to defend their home turf and score runs against these guys or they will be in for a long series again versus a Detroit team.
TIGERS: The Tigers just need to play the Sox the way they have all year, and like last time they played them, shut down the Sox middle of the order, it will all follow from there.  I think their hitting will get better at the Cell during the series and I believe in this team.  I have watched them all year and they can beat the White Sox out for the division, and as a fan of the Tigers they can beat these guys with their offense.
PITCHING:
MONDAY: Rick Porcello vs Jose Quintana-  Aside from his last start Porcello has done well lately and his ground ball pitching in the sox ballpark is huge for the Tigers tonight, I expect him to shut this offense down and set the tone for the series.  Quintana is good, but the Tigers can certainly hit him well and make him leave the game early.  LINE PROJECTION: Porcello- 7.1 IP 1 ER 5  2 BB 7 K  Quintana 5 IP 5 ER 7 H 3 BB 5 K
TUESDAY: Doug Fister vs Jake Peavy- I expect Fister to fully return to his second half greatness for this start and hold the White Sox to barely any offense.  HE could be dominant in this start too, he just needs to keep going strong even if he hits a bump at one point.  Peavy has faced the Tigers a lot in 2012, and they are starting to figure him out very well, so it may not be his best start of the year.  LINE PROJECTION Fister: 7 IP 2 ER 5 H 1 BB 8 K  Peavy: 5.2 IP 4 ER 7 H 2 BB 6 K
WEDNESDAY: Max Scherzer vs Francisco Liriano- Scherzer has been a force in the last month and he tamed the White Sox last start, I expect something similar.  On the note of Liriano, I think he was a bad pick-up for the SOx and the Tigers hit him well, so we will see.  LINE PROJECTION: Scherzer: 7 IP 1 ER 6 H 2 BB 12 K  Liriano 6 IP 4 ER 6 H 3 BB 2 K
THURSDAY: Justin Verlander vs Chris Sale- The Sunday Night Baseball match-up where Verlander outpitched Sale has a sequel and I don’t expect it to be any different, a pitcher’s duel where Verlander dominates and doesn’t give up much and Sale does great but the Tigers could use some power and rallies and clutch hitting to beat him again  LINE PROJECTIONS Verlander: 9 IP 1 ER 4 H 0 BB 9 K  Sale 7 IP 3 ER 6 H 2 BB 8 K

KEYS:
Tigers: They should win Monday and just keep hitting, a sweep may seem far-fetched but I think it’s actually a possibility and guys like Garcia, Cabrera and Fielder along witht he whole offense should come alive
White Sox: They have to hold the Tigers and score runs to win games in the series

PREDICTIONS
Monday: Tigers 7  White Sox 2
Tuesday: Tigers 6 White Sox 7
Wednesday: Tigers 7 White Sox 1
Thursday; Tigers 4 White Sox 1

Tigers Biggest Series of 2012 Starts Tonight

It may not be the biggest by the end of the year but a sweep is just what the Tigers need to climb atop the division and stay there, and let’s not forget right now is the time most Tigers play at their absolute best.
THE YOUNG GUN: Sure, Nick Castellanos is the Tigers top prospect but Avisail Garcia has slowly climbed up the system and flashed his tools and in the past few years he has turned those into results.  He deserves the call and could be the Tigers weapon to success f they make the postseason.  First he needs to help this series, and he can.  Some compare him to former Tiger Magglio Ordonez and if one thing is for sure he can get a clutch hit like him, so don;t be surprised if he gets a huge hit and some attention while making his MLB debut tomorrow.  No he started the year repeating HIgh A ball, not because he was bad but the fact he was young, and he tore it up, so the argument that he can’t help Detroit is a bad one.
THE OFFENSE: The Tigers need to stop the White SOx 2-5 and they can beat them.  The other parts of the order need be pitched well but the 2-5 holes are the Sox best hitters and if the Tigers stop Youkilis, Dunn, Konerko and Rios they can win the series and possibly more.  It also helps that the Tigers three best pitchers are pitching, so the chances of shutting down those hitter goes up.  So get these guys, don’t walk guys, and get the hitter in the bottom of the order out.
PITCHING
Friday: Jake Peavy vs Doug Fister- Fister has been awesome since All-Star Break besides one bad start and Peavy shuts down the Tigers since he was traded to Chicago.  This is Chicago’s best chance to win.  This should be a pitcher’s match-up.  I thinK Fister should rebound and I predict him as the Tigers Player of The Game.  Both of these teams will need to get hits.  I think the Tigers will need to bring out their power tonight too  LINE PREDICTIONS: Peavy 7 IP 3 ER 6 H 1 BB 8 K  Fister 7 IP 2 ER 7 H 2 BB 8 K
Saturday: Francisco Liriano vs Max Scherzer- Scherzer will surpass the 200 K mark during this game and he should hold down the White Sox well as he has started a mini hot streak, he just needs to avoid walks and be the power pitcher he is.  I like Scherzer and the big things expected of him should come out now.  Liriano could get bombed by this offense, but he could also do a decent job, the Tigers offense needs to show up and make a statement during this game.  PREDICTED LINES  Liriano 6 IP 5 ER 7 H 3 BB 5 K  Scherzer 6.2 IP 2 ER 7 H 2 BB 10 K
Sunday: CHris Sale vs Justin Verlander- Verlander needs to bounce back after a bad start and he will because he is an ace.  His W-L record is not what he has been this season and he can shutdown any offense, and I expect him to have another special game against CHicago.  Sale is impressive and I like his stuff and how he pitches altogether but the Tigers just need to get a few hits and runs off of Sale and they can win.  PREDICTED LINES Sale 7.1 IP 3 ER 7 H 1 BB 7 K  Verlander 9 IP 0 ER 4 H 0 BB 11 K

Game Predictions:
Friday: White Sox 5  Tigers 6
Saturday: White Sox 3 Tigers 9
Sunday: White Sox 0 Tigers 4

The White Sox struggle in Detroit and the Tigers play well at home and the Detroit Tigers hitting can come alive this series.

NOTE: The Tigers have had some disappointing seasons from guys like Boesch and Avila this year but they can get through it.  Avila still gets on and Boesch can still hit a bomb and they can both get better in September, but the big thing is guys like Max Scherzer and Austin Jackson are doing better than 2011 so the Tigers can do fine and make a run in September, maybe even one like 2011.

White Sox Get Youkilis From Red Sox

The White Sox have acquired Kevin Youkilis from the Red Sox For Zach Stewart and Brent Lillibridge.  From the Boston aspect of the deal, Will Middlebrooks was doing to good to send down and Youk’s time had run out in Boston as Middlebrooks was doing better and a better fit moving forward, Boston got some great years and moments out of Youkilis and he was one of the better Red Sox in their 2000’s history.  They got Zach Stewart, a top pitching prospect with a good arm, who may not be as good as he was once touted to be but he could fill in as a four or five guy or a power bullpen arm one day, he was a nice, decent piece for the Red Sox in the deal.  The Red Sox also got Brent Lillibridge, who can play outfield and infield and should continue to do what he’s done with the White Sox, although in Boston his power could get a bit better.  The teams that didn’t get Youk are the Pirates,w ho I think should have tried hard for him, the Dodgers who he would have helped but didn’t lose out on as much or the Indians, where he could have been a nice piece.  Though the Tigers should still overtake the White Sox, their line-up is good enough to stay in the race with Detroit now and the Tigers need to beat them.  Youkilis needed a change of scenery and the White Sox are a good fit, he;s still in a hitter friendly park and though his numbers have a downward trend, he should make it go upward and even if he doesn;t, he will still be productive and be a huge upgrade over Morel and Hudson at third.  Youkilis should continue being an all-star in Chicago and it was a key and real good acquisition for the White Sox,  Dunn, Konerko, and Youk will be pretty good for them, but I still don;t think it’ll be enough.  I’d hit Youkilis fifth, like he did some of his time in Boston, but second isn;t a bad slot for him either.

My Take: Chris Sale

Chris Sale is a very good left handed pitcher, who in the future could be an ace or a great closer. He’s a better starting and has impressed me. He looks kind of like Randy Johnson on the mound, like FSN Detroit analysts Mario Impemba and Rod Allen said, not that he will be Johnson just that he can be like him in some ways and he gives the same presence and feel. He can hold his own and shut down an offense with his stuff but he needs work and is still a few years down the road from reaching his potential. He will strike you out often too. He is a stud pitcher to say the least and I would be surprised if he didn’t have a good career. You should see many glimpses of that in 2012 and in 2013 he could make a small breakout. The White Sox will have an ace and losing Buehrle will be eased by this guy. Sale and Reed will make a good starter-bullpen combo too. Sale could be one of the best soon and you should keep your eye out for him too because he can do a lot right in a game and shut your team down. His numbers and what he can do are amazing and his ERA should almost always run low. His first two starts of 2012 are what he’s going to be this year minus a few bad starts he will have.

Moves: Maholm, Frasor

• The Cubs have signed Paul Maholm, rounding out a rebuilding rotation that figures to do okay.  He will join Dempeter, Garza, Volsatd, Randy Wells, and Travis Wood.  Garza is likely to be dealt.  Maholm is probably the second best without Garza, behind Dempster and not by much.  He may have better stats this year and should have good stats no matter what.  Maholm isn’t great and never will be but he’s an ideal number four who can be more at times and even though he’s moving to Wrigley, which will hurt a little, he could build on his success last year and even if he does decline he will still do well and be an innings eater.  It’s a good deal for one year and a good one for two.  He should earn his money if not more and could have a pretty good 2012 or at least part of it.  His stats should be good and a WAr of 1.75 isn’t out of reason and maybe a little higher.
• Jason Frasor was re-acquired by the Blue Jays from the White Sox and he will be a good arm in the bullpen and do what he always has in Toronto, he will be another good, late inning guy and I like him.  He won;t pitch like he did in Chicago but like he did in Toronto.  The Jays gave up Myles Jaye, who is a toss up but has been good so far and has upside and Daniel Webb, who I don;t see going anywhere, both are pitchers.  EDGE: Jays

Padres Get Carlos Quentin

The Padres got Carlos Quentin in a deal for Simon Castro and Pedro Hernandez.  I like Castro, but his lack of pitches could hurt in the long run and he may have a good year or maybe a few but I get the feeling he will be inconsistent, sort of like a right-handed version of Liriano but I like him and his fastball and if he gets some  more pitches he could be good, although I don;t like him in US Cellular.  Hernandez may be a good bullpen guy or a five starter but he also may never make it, so the return of Quentin is bad.  Quentin’s defense is horrible and it always will be, but Maybin will make up some of his ground and it won’t be much worse than it was as a White Sock.  His power won’t take too much of a hit, I can;t see him hitting less than 25 homers and he will still hit okay and though he’s not the ideal slugger he will do fine for San Diego and he will be their best hitter in 2012 with decent stats.  EDGE: Padres

BOTTOM LINE(Using my gut and sabermetrics): Quentin probably will regress a little but he will still be good and the White Sox are heading backwards with not too many good prospects to show for it.

Blue Jays Acquire Sergio Santos, Padres Acquire Huston Street

• The Blue Jays traded prospect Nestor Molina, who has a decent to good future to the White Sox for their new closer Sergio Santos.  Santos a good closer who may ne day even be an all-star and he fits well in that role and with the Jays.  He’s not your ideal closer but he gets the job done and he did well minus a few bumps last year.  He will never be the best but he will be good and will be a consistent 30 save pitcher for the Jays.  They got a good pitcher in Santos and he will be a good closer for many years for them, especially in 2012.  The White Sox received Nestor Molina, who has torn up the minor leagues but probably won’t be just that good in the majors, but he could be a pretty good number two or three starter in about three years and will be  a great young talent when he comes up.  EDGE: Blue Jays
• The Padres got Huston Street for a player to be named later, now Street isn’t the best closer but expect a huge 2012 from him moving from Coors Field to PETCO Park.  He will have a few tough times but he’s a solid closer and should do much better as a Padre.  It was a great trade for the Padres and they get the edge.  If he stays in San Diego for a while he could be a good closer for them for a while.

White Sox to Move Chris Sale to Rotation, Rangers Will Do The Same With Feliz

• Chris Sale has been moved to the rotation and I think he will do fine.  This year might be his worst year but I can see a 3.40 ERA at best 4.50 at worst but somewhere in the 3.75-3.80 ERA would be reasonable.  His mechanics will work out very well too and he should have good stats all around.  I think this will work for the White Sox and they have a future two or three starter who will keep getting better every year.  He will be a power pitcher but he will be a successful one and his stuff will do big things for him and his fastball will be a big pitch for him.  He should be pretty consistent but have a lot of impressive starts and have some really bad ones.  He is defiantly worth being in the rotation and is better off as a starter than a reliever.
• Neftali Feliz will move to the rotation and I think he will be the next Alexi Ogando only way better.  This guy could be a Cy Young contender as soon as next year with his stuff.  He won’t have too many bad starts and will return to form after his bad World Series.  He’s better off in the rotation too and now the Rangers rotation will be good even if the do lose Wilson.  Feliz should go 6-7 innings every time out there and have some very dominant starts.  As for his career he should be impressive or great in most seasons and I see him winning at least one Cy Young and being a perineal all-star

RANGERS ROTATION (WITH WILSON)

1. LHP CJ Wilson
2. RHP Neftali Feliz
3. LHP Derek Holland
4. RHP Alexi Ogando
5. RHP Colby Lewis
6. LHP Matt Harrison (If no Wilson)

WHITE SOX ROTATION (WITH BUEHRLE)

1. LHP Mark Buehrle
2. RHP Gavin Floyd
3. LHP John Danks
4. RHP Jake Peavy
5. LHP Chris Sale
6. RHP Phil Humber (If no Buehrle, Maybe worth keeping but good sell as he probably had career highs in 2011, though he could keep it up)
7. RHP Zach Stewart (Is worth a look now)

Do The Tigers Have The Division Locked Up?

The Indians are the bigger threat, I think…
INDIANS: If Ubaldo shows up they can hang it for a couple of weeks longer but they should get eliminated the last week of the year.  They just aren’t that good of a team and lack enough offense espacially without Choo and Sizemore.  If they did somehow make the playoffs they should be an easy team to beat.  They can close games out with Perez which will be big for them in staying in the race, though it will take a big comeback there still in it, but not by much at all.  CHANCE OF MAKING IT: 10%
WHITE SOX: Not enough a disappointing.  I say they go .500 or less, maybe a lot less from here on out.  Konerko has been the only good player and if Dunn and Rios don’t have a huge stretch, there is no way the make it.  If they get swept be the Tigers tomorrow, I’d say they’re.  They could lose a lot of they’re divisional games.  They have decent pitching but Humber was holding it together and if he doesn’t come back soon it’s another dink in the team.  I also have a feeling Santos may fall apart now.  CHANCE OF MAKING IT: <1%

The Tigers look like a tough, beatable team and could easily take it to both team in the upcoming match-ups and the Tigers could be a surprise in the playoffs, especially if even one of Scherzer or Porcello shows and both could.