MLB Postseason Pick’em: 10/14/12

Tigers over Yankees 7-6
I know I said NYY would win Game 2 and it will be close but I see losing Jeter as a big factor in this game and the Tugers slugging away ln Kuroda
Giants over Cardinals 6-3
The Giants won Game 1 of the NLCS in 2010 and I expecta repeat of that, the home crowd will help while their pitching does what it does and they win a big Game 1

Yankee Lose Jeter

The Yankees offense is falling apart.  Rodriguez and Swisher are ice-cold and now Derek Jeter is hurt and he may not be the Yankees best player anymore but he is a postseason legend and always hits for them and he is almost irreplaceable while in the middle of a late career surge season.  Alex Rodriguez needs to step up for sure now and he just may a little, but he tends to choke and I wouldn’t bet against that either.  The big deal is that Jeter is a great leadoff hitter and even though Ichiro can fill that role being good but less productive it creates a hole somewhere else in the line-up and now Russell Martin is hitting fifth which isn’t good for the Yankees.  It also gives the Tigers an edge at shortstop and some momentum and makes winning this series look even harder for the Yankees.  Now Jayson Nix and Eduardo Nunez are playing short and they are not only a huge downgrade all-around but other than having some power probably won’t hit much a t all and their defense is shaky at best.  Losing Jeter and his WAR of 3.2 will hurt the Yankees this series and his a huge dent for them.  The offense really has to step up to make the loss of Jeter as minimal as possible.  Jeter will come back next year and I expect to see him in another postseason doing good just like he always has.

The Tigers Ninth Inning For The ALCS

The past three games the Tigers pitchers have given up eight runs, of those eight the Tigers closer since 2010, Jose Valverde has given up every single one of those runs, except one.  He literally is the problem for the Tigers right now.  Valverde has been good to the Tigers in 2010 and 2011 but he has had a massive collapse this year and it’s almost crazy how it happened and how in the playoffs it’s at its worst and changing closers in the postseason never happens, but after Valverde’s last two outings I think he has blown his job.  The Tigers have a good bullpen right now besides him and lots of other guys could close out the rest of the postseason.  What I’d do is pt Octavio Dotel as closer since he has postseason experience and I’d keep Benoit in his role because he is doing just fine there minus his home runs given up.  Al Albuquerque is another option but I don;t think putting him in that role in this situation his a good idea.  I’d keep Valverde as a mop up guy for now and if the Tigers are winning by a ton or losing a game that is out of reach for sure put him in.  If the Tigers keep Valverde in the role I think he will rebound somewhat and could get a save or two but he is still at high risk for blowing them.  He has good stuff, but it’s not working for him right now and he needs to figure out, but the Tigers can’t afford another blown save this series, so if they keep Valverde in there the Tigers are taking a big risk.  Valverde will be a lot better if he can get movement on his pitches like his fastball, but he could make that adjustment anytime.

2012 ALCS Preview: Tigers vs Yankees

My Pick: Tigers in 7 (They win games 1, 3, 5, and 7)
This should be a good and close series and could be a historical one like this postseason has been.  So watch out as offense should control most of the series but could eb stopped at any time with the arms.
Positional Head-to-Head
C: Avila vs Martin: Avila win since he has a higher average and better defense even though Martin is okay and has been clutch
1B: Fielder vs Teixeira: Fielder has a higher average, OBP, homers and a lot more and is better all-around besides defense
2B: Infante vs Cano: Both are good but Cano is better and could some damage, especially in the postseason
3B: Cabrera vs Rodirguez: Cabrera is way better and will do better this series and will be special like he is, Rodriguez will choke and strikeout mostly
SS: Peralta vs Jeter: Jeter is the Yankees Mr. October of present, nobody will compare during the playoffs at shortstop
LF: Dirks vs Suzuki: Wash, you may think I’m crazy but they will both hit well this series
CF: Jackson vs Granderson: Jackson, Granderson will play center good, but Jackson could better and he has power and will hit homers, but so could Jackson
RF: Garcia/Berry vs Swisher: Garcia and Berry will be good and Swisher might struggle a bit, but he still wins
Manager: Leyland vs Girardi: Leyland, it’s close but Leyland has had a bit more success
Rotation: Tigers will win this hands down even with the Yankees good rotation
Bullpen: Yankees, the Yankees win this by a lot
Bench: Tigers, I like it a bit betetr but both will play a big role in the sereis

Grades:             Tigers       Yankees
Rotation             A-               B-
Bullpen              C                 A-
Line-Up             A                A
Bench                 A-              B+

STARTERS: The Yankees have Sabathia, Pettitte, and Kuroda and all are great to decent but the Tigers can hit this rotation very well and Sabathia has struggled against Detroit in the postseason.  Pettitte could put up the best numbers this series and do a good job.  The Yankees have Hughes who right now for them is a liability.  The Tigers rotation is always tough with a core of Fister, Scherzer, and Sanchez could all put up good numbers and are one of the better groups of arms out there and hitters should be more than fearful of them on top of Verlander, who is getting better and better each postseason series.

LINE-UP: These line-ups could put up some runs despite the pitching some games and the Tigers 1-4 hitters should d well and I see Avila, Peralta and Young breaking out somewhat to a lot and all of the Yankees hitters should do something big this series besides Swisher, Rodriguez and some of the bottom of the order guys.  Cabrera, Jackson and Fielder will be the big hitters for the Tigers this series like they were in the ALDS, regular season and even spring training.  Young heats up against the Yankees and ALCS too and Cabrera kills the Yankees and could be this year’s Nelson Cruz of the playoffs.

KEYS:
Tigers: Offense to breakout really big and support pitching so bullpen isn’t even a factor, pinch run Berry late and in every chance you get, and start him in a few games too
Yankees: Control the offense as best as you can

Can The Tigers Win The ALCS?

Yes, Game 6 will be harder than Game 7 and the Rangers are still favorites but just slightly.  Max Scherzer will give up a few runs in Game 6 but that should be it and he should keep the Tigers in the game.  The offense is now rolling and it needs to stay that way, and I expect it too.  Leave everybody where there at too Jim Leyland.  Young could come up big again and so should the whole order but the middle of it mostly.  If the Tigers force a Game 7 I trust Fister, first he won another deciding game against the Yankees, second he’s been lights out since August and third he pitched well in Game 3.  If he goes seven you can turn it over to Verlander for an inning or two.  Benoit and Valverde should come up big.  If I were to make a prediction I would say the Tigers win both games.  They can win two straight and on the road and they have played very well against the Rangers all year and even or the road.  One thing is for sure, the Tigers won’t go down easy at all and the Rangers won’t easier but in an elimination game I’ll take the Tigers no matter what.  Look for Miguel Cabrera to shine the brightest along with he whole Tigers bullpen, in Coke, Benoit and Valverde.  The Tigers can hit Holland easy they just need to keep the lead when they have it and score at least five runs, which they can do easily.  They can hit Colby Lewis too, he’s probably the worst pitcher currently in the rotation besides Harrison.

Can The Tigers Comeback?

Yes but there is one key.  They have to win tomorrow, if they don’t win I see them losing this series in six.  I going to make a bold prediction right here and say the Tigers win this series in six still.  Tomorrow you have Fister and Lewis and Lewis may be a great postseason pitcher but still the Tigers can start hitting back at home and they really can hit Lewis and after that game the way Porcello has pitched he can beat Harrison and if the Tigers can get to CJ and have JV return to himself they can take a 3-2 series lead and it’s very possible to that, I’d give it a 40% chance and then you have a rematch and if the Tigers can get to Holland a little better the Tiger win the series.  If the Tigers lose tomorrow you have to start Verlander Game 5 but to win at all this offense has to start-up.  Tomorrow Kelly deserves a start at third and leave Santiago at second and Raburn in right and then the Tigers need to get their middle of the order alive, especially V-Mart and Miggy, if those to can hit the Tigers are in shape even if Avila and Peralta don’t follow and at least one should.  Jackson might geta hit here or there but he probably will struggle no matter what, they only other two guys I’d start in the leadoff spot right now are Santiago or Kelly.

1. Don Kelly 3B
2. Ramon Satiago 2B
3. Demon Young LF
4. Miguel Cabrera 1B
5. Victor Martinez DH
6. Ryan Raburn RF
7. Jhonny Peralta SS
8. Alex Avila C
9. Austin Jackson CF

Can The Tigers Survive Without Magglio Ordonez?

Yes they can but it’s a very tough blow and it will be hard to deal with, the Tigers can still win though.  Raburn is in left for Delmon Young this series which isn’t bad since Raburn kills the Rangers.  For Magglio’s replacement we will get to see Andy Dirks, a guy who fits in the two or seven hole and a guy who should hit both lefties and righties.  Dirks is a obvoius upgrade on defense and he may just surprise everybody and do what Maggs had been doing on offense lately.  His hitting won’t be as good likely but it will be good.  Losing Ordonez will be tough on the Tiger but I can still see them having an offensive outbreak and possibly winning the AL championship and World Series.  This injury on;ly makes it a little less likely they do and just a little.  Clete Thomas may replace him on the roster and if he does Clete may get a couple hits and make a contribution or two but nothing more.  Kelly may also see more playing time and I can see him hitting .280-ish in it.  Delmon young may be reinstated which is the best situation because you can pinch hit him in key situations for the next few games and he may get to start the last few games of the series.  Guillen getting reinstated for this series isn’t a bad move either, at this point I’d stick him out in left field and move Raburn to right for the first six innings and then put Kelly or Dirks in.  The last option is pure speculation but if Boesch could comeback and start and then Young in the World Series this team would barely miss a beat.  It seems likely that Dirks will start or Kelly will start and Thomas or Young ar reinstated, if Young is he probably won’t be ready to start right away like I said so he’s a good pinch hitter until he can, better than Thomas.  Dirks may breakout and losing Ordonez and Young makes this team on a little bit worse and if Young comes back at all the Tigers are in shape.  So yes, the Tigers can survive without Ordonez.

A Look At The Tigers Game 1 Line-Up

1. Austin Jackson CF- If he can get on than he can stay here and he found ways to get on even when he wasn’t hitting very well in the ALDS
2. Ryan Raburn 2B- A Ranger killer who does good in Rangers Ballpark and is doing well right now should stay here
3. Miguel Cabrera 1B- As long as he hits a few homers, gets on and gets RBIs he can hit third or fourth, third might be the better choice because he could get ane extra at-bat along the way but it doesn’t really matter a lot
4. Victor Martinez DH- I like him hitting fourth and should do a lot better this series and I have a feeling he will flash his power
5. Magglio Orodnez RF- He’s been hot and is a great postseason hitter, he should shit here or second but no lower
6. Alex Avila C- He needs to regain his swing and then he can hit a couple of homers and he can hit here with ease
7. Jhonny Peralta SS- A great number seven hitter who will contribute a lot
8. Ramon Santiago SS- When he gets a start he has some pop and can geta few hits here and on another note his defense is great
9. Brandon Inge 3B- He does well and will hit a few homers in the playoffs

Losing Delmon hurts but this line-up can still get a lot of runs and do well.  Betemit should hit a homer and get a few hits here and there if he stops swinging at everything.  Kelly can do some nice things for the Tigers with a few starts too

CS Previews

ALCS
DETROIT AT TEXAS
PRECITION: Tigers in 6

NLCS
ST. LOUIS AT MILWAUKEE
PREDICTION: Brewers in 7

Ranking Remaining Teams

1. Tigers
2. Brewers
3. Rangers
4. Cardinals

NOTE ON EACH TEAM
TIGERS: These guys have JV and can beat the Rangers on the road.  Scherzer and Fister should do pretty good too. I like the offense at Rangers Ballpark too.
RANGERS: Not a team to be taken lightly what they’ve done is good and that’s what they are and will be. I think they just lack some starting pitching to win this series.
BREWERS: They can be beat but it’ll be hard. Braun, Fielder, Axford, Greinke will come up huge and if they win the NL Crown, they’ll do it as a team.
CARDINALS: A surprise team who can do really good and will play the Brewers tough. They have everything to be successful in the NLCS but the Brewers are better and it will be tough for them to win but they easily could and even if they don’t they will make it a long series

Versus: CS Version

ALCS
DET-TEX-Edge
C: Avila vs Napoli: Napoli
1B: Cabrera vs Moreland: Cabrera
2B: Santiago vs Kinsler: Kinsler
3B: Inge vs Beltre: Beltre
SS: Peralta vs Andrus: Peralta
LF: Raburn vs Gentry: Raburn
CF: Jackson vs Hamilton: Hamilton
RF: Ordonez vs Cruz: Ordonez
DH: Martinez vs Young: Wash
BN: Worth, Kelly and Betemit vs Murphy, Chavez and Torrelba: Detroit
SP1: Verlander vs Wilson: Verlander
SP2: Scherzer vs Holland: Scherzer
SP3: Fister vs Lewis: Fister
SP4: Porcello vs Harrison: Harrsion
RP: Coke vs Ogando: Ogando
7th: Alberquerque vs Uehara: Alberquerue
SU: Benoit vs Adams: Benoit
CL: Valverde vs Feliz: Valverde
Manager: Leyland vs Washington: Leyland
DET 13  TEX 7

NLCS
STL-MIL-Edge
C: Molina vs Lucroy: Molina
1B: Pujols vs Fielder: Pujols
2B: Schumaker vs Weeks: Weeks
SS: Furcal vs Bentancourt: Furcal
3B: Freese vs Hariston: Freese
LF: Holliday vs Braun: Braun
CF: Jay vs Morgan: Morgan
RF: Berkman vs Hart: Berkman
BN: Gomez, Kotsay and Kottaras vs Craig, Theroit and Punto: Brewers
SP1: Garcia vs Greinke: Greinke
SP2: Jackson vs Marcum: Marcum
SP3: Carpenter vs Gallardo: Carpenter
SP4: Lohse vs Wolf: Wolf
RP: Rzepcynski vs Hawkins: Rzepcynski
7th: Dotel vs Saito: Dotel
SU: Salas vs Rodriguez: Rodriguez
CL: Motte vs Axford: Axford
Manager: La Russa vs Roenicke: La Russa
STL 9 MIL 9